Publications:
Working Papers:
"VOG: Using Volcanic Eruptions to Estimate the Impact of Particulates on Student Learning Outcomes" (w/ Aureo De Paula, Timothy Halliday, & Rachel Inafuku) [pdf copy - October 2023]
-Revise and resubmit: Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics
Abstract: This study pairs variation stemming from volcanic eruptions with the census of Hawai‘i’s public schools student test scores to estimate the impact of PM2.5 and SO2 on student performance. Increased particulate pollution leads to a small but statistically significant drop in test scores. These results are concentrated amongst schools located in south Hawai‘i, which has the highest level of pollution on average. This suggests that the damages from pollutants increase precipitously with baseline exposure, yet are still present in relatively lower baseline environments. Within schools, these effects are driven by economically disadvantaged students. The effects of PM2.5 are larger for the poorest pupils by a factor of at least four. We demonstrate that poor air quality disproportionately impacts the human capital accumulation of economically disadvantaged children.
"Slow Traffic, Fast Food: The Effect of Time Lost on Food Choice" (w/ Panka Bencsik & Rebecca Taylor) [pdf copy - September 2023] [IZA Discussion Paper No. 16036 - March 2023]
-Revise and resubmit: Journal of Urban Economics
Abstract: Time scarcity is one of the strongest correlates of fast food consumption. To estimate the causal effect of time lost on food choice, we match daily store-specific foot traffic data traced via smartphones to plausibly exogenous shocks in highway traffic data in Los Angeles. We find that on days when highways are more congested, individuals are more likely to dine out and less likely to grocery shop. The effects are particularly pronounced for afternoon rush hour traffic. Our results imply a net reduction in healthy food store choice due to time lost.
"From Distraction to Dedication: Commitment Against Phone Use in the Classroom" (w/ Billur Aksoy and Scott Carrell) [pdf copy - December 2023]
Abstract: Many people try to limit their phone usage, yet many struggle to do so, highlighting challenges in self-control. We present findings from a field experiment conducted at a large public university in partnership with an app designed as a commitment device to reduce phone use in the classroom. We find that app usage led to improvements in classroom focus, attendance, and overall academic satisfaction. Analysis of time spent outside the classroom suggests a potential substitution effect: students using the app allocated less time to study, particularly on campus. Overall, our evidence suggests improvements in transcript grades associated with app usage.
"Does Automation Reduce Stigma? The Effect of Self-checkout Register Adoption on Purchasing Decisions" (w/ Rebecca Cardinali, Rebecca Taylor, & Sofia Villas-Boas) [pdf copy - March 2024]
Abstract: By removing human cashiers, self-checkout registers may alter feelings of embarrassment experienced by customers. Using high-frequency scanner data from supermarkets in the Washington D.C. area with staggered adoption of self-checkout, we conduct event study analyses on consumer purchases. We find large but noisy effects of self-checkout adoption on sales of some stigmatized items. Moreover, we show stigmatized items are much more likely to be purchased at self-checkout than at cashier registers, especially condoms and pregnancy tests. We estimate customers are willing to pay 8.6 cents in additional time cost for the privacy of purchasing condoms and pregnancy tests at self-checkout.
"The Robustness Reproducibility of the American Economic Review" (w/ Abel Brodeur, Douglas Campbell, Anna Dreber, Magnus Johannesson, Joseph Kopecky, & Nikita Tsoy) [pdf copy - April 2024]
Abstract: We estimate the robustness reproducibility of key results from 17 non-experimental AER papers published in 2013 (8 papers) and 2022/23 (9 papers). We find that many of the results are not robust, with no improvement over time. The fraction of significant robustness tests (p<0.05) varies between 17% and 88% across the papers with a mean of 46%. The mean relative t/z-value of the robustness tests varies between 35% and 87% with a mean of 63%, suggesting selective reporting of analytical specifications that exaggerate statistical significance. A sample of economists (n=359) overestimates robustness reproducibility, but predictions are correlated with observed reproducibility.
"Mass Reproducibility and Replicability: A New Hope" (w/ Abel Brodeur, Derek Mikola, Nikolai Cook, et al.) [pdf copy - April 2024]
Abstract: This study pushes our understanding of research reliability by reproducing and replicating claims from 110 papers in leading economic and political science journals. The analysis involves computational reproducibility checks and robustness assessments. It reveals several patterns. First, we uncover a high rate of fully computationally reproducible results (over 85%). Second, excluding minor issues like missing packages or broken pathways, we uncover coding errors for about 25% of studies, with some studies containing multiple errors. Third, we test the robustness of the results to 5,511 re-analyses. We find a robustness reproducibility of about 70%. Robustness reproducibility rates are relatively higher for re-analyses that introduce new data and lower for re-analyses that change the sample or the definition of the dependent variable. Fourth, 52% of re-analysis effect size estimates are smaller than the original published estimates and the average statistical significance of a re-analysis is 77% of the original. Lastly, we rely on six teams of researchers working independently to answer eight additional research questions on the determinants of robustness reproducibility. Most teams find a negative relationship between replicators' experience and reproducibility, while finding no relationship between reproducibility and the provision of intermediate or even raw data combined with the necessary cleaning codes.
"Unveiling the Unseen Illness: Public Health Warnings and Heat Strokes" (w/ Tim Ruberg) [Extended abstract available upon request]
"Major Disappointment: A Large-scale Experiment on (Non-) Pecuniary Information and Major Choice" (w/ Scott Carrell and Derek Rury) [collecting additional data]
Abstract: Studies suggest providing information to undergraduate students can influence their preference of major. To test the scalability of information treatments on actual major decisions, we conducted several large-scale field experiments across over 13,000 undergraduate students. Three treatment arms separately provided pecuniary, major satisfaction, and job-relatedness information. Despite nearly half of freshmen switching their major at some point during their undergraduate tenure, we find that our information treatments had no impact on major choice. These results hold for various subsamples, outcomes, and specifications. Our results suggest caution on the promise of information provision influencing major choice.
Research in Progress:
"Survival of the Scandalous? Retractions, Failed Replications, and Salaries" (w/ Abel Brodeur)
"Minimum Wage and Higher Education" (w/ Scott Carrell & Alice Li)
"#Tenure? Media, Academia, and Career Outcomes" (w/ Marieke Kleemans, Nick Halliwell & Scott Carrell)
"File Cabinet" Working Papers:
"Peer Review Exhibits the Gambler's Fallacy" (with Scott Carrell and David Figlio) [pdf copy - April 2020]
"College Better: Parimutuel Betting Markets as a Commitment Device and Monetary Incentive" [working paper not updated to include experimental results from the University of Hawaii] [Recipient of the NSF Doctoral Dissertation Research Improvement Grant (#1559150), the Russell Sage Foundation Small Grants in Behavioral Economics, the J-PAL NA Full Research Project Grant, and the 2015 and 2016 UC Davis ISS Dissertation Improvement Grants]
- Carrell, S., Figlio, D., Lusher., L., Clubs and Networks in Economics Reviewing. Journal of Political Economy, forthcoming [pdf copy]
- Brodeur, A., Carrell, S., Figlio, D., Lusher, L., Unpacking P-hacking and Publication Bias. American Economic Review, 2023 [pdf copy]
- Lusher, L., Yang, W., Carrell, S., Congestion on the Information Superhighway: Inefficiencies in Economics Working Papers. Journal of Public Economics, 2023 [pdf copy] [NBER WP 29153 - August 2021]
- Ballis, B., Lusher, L., Martorell, P., The Effects of Exam Frames on Student Effort and Performance. Economics of Education Review, 2022 [pdf copy]
- Lusher, L., Schnorr, G., Taylor, R., Unemployment Insurance as a Worker Indiscipline Device? Evidence from Scanner Data. American Economic Journal: Applied Economics, 2022 [pdf copy] [IZA DP No. 14105 - February 2021]
- Kurlaender, M., Lusher, L., Case, M., Is Early Start a Better Start? Evaluating California State University's Early Start Remediation Efforts. Journal of Policy Analysis and Management, 2020 [pdf copy] [IZA DP No. 12548 - August 2019]
- Lusher, L., Yasenov, V., Luong, P., Does Schedule Irregularity Affect Productivity? Evidence from Random Assignment into College Classes. Labour Economics, 2019 [pdf copy - August 2018] [IZA DP No. 11079 - October 2017]
- Campbell, D., Lusher, L., The Impact of Real Exchange Rate Shocks on Manufacturing Workers: An Autopsy from the MORG. Journal of International Money and Finance, 2019 [pdf copy] --- Media: VoxEU, Economist's View
- Lusher, L., Campbell, D., Carrell, S., TAs Like Me: Racial Interactions between Graduate Teaching Assistants and Undergraduates. Journal of Public Economics, 2018 [pdf copy] [NBER working paper 21568] --- Media: Slate, Inside Higher Ed, Washington Examiner, The National Review, The Daily Illini
- Lusher, L., He, C., Fick, S., Are Professional Basketball Players Reference-Dependent? Applied Economics, 2018 [pdf copy]
- Lusher, L., Yasenov, V., Gender Performance Gaps: Quasi-experimental Evidence on the Role of Gender Differences in Sleep Cycles. Economic Inquiry, 2018 [pdf copy] [IZA Discussion Paper No. 10012 - June 2016] --- Media: The Washington Post, The Independent, Education Week, The National Post, IZA Newsroom
- Lusher, L., Yasenov, V., Double-shift Schooling and Student Success: Quasi-experimental Evidence from Europe. Economics Letters, 2016 [pdf copy]
Working Papers:
"VOG: Using Volcanic Eruptions to Estimate the Impact of Particulates on Student Learning Outcomes" (w/ Aureo De Paula, Timothy Halliday, & Rachel Inafuku) [pdf copy - October 2023]
-Revise and resubmit: Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics
Abstract: This study pairs variation stemming from volcanic eruptions with the census of Hawai‘i’s public schools student test scores to estimate the impact of PM2.5 and SO2 on student performance. Increased particulate pollution leads to a small but statistically significant drop in test scores. These results are concentrated amongst schools located in south Hawai‘i, which has the highest level of pollution on average. This suggests that the damages from pollutants increase precipitously with baseline exposure, yet are still present in relatively lower baseline environments. Within schools, these effects are driven by economically disadvantaged students. The effects of PM2.5 are larger for the poorest pupils by a factor of at least four. We demonstrate that poor air quality disproportionately impacts the human capital accumulation of economically disadvantaged children.
"Slow Traffic, Fast Food: The Effect of Time Lost on Food Choice" (w/ Panka Bencsik & Rebecca Taylor) [pdf copy - September 2023] [IZA Discussion Paper No. 16036 - March 2023]
-Revise and resubmit: Journal of Urban Economics
Abstract: Time scarcity is one of the strongest correlates of fast food consumption. To estimate the causal effect of time lost on food choice, we match daily store-specific foot traffic data traced via smartphones to plausibly exogenous shocks in highway traffic data in Los Angeles. We find that on days when highways are more congested, individuals are more likely to dine out and less likely to grocery shop. The effects are particularly pronounced for afternoon rush hour traffic. Our results imply a net reduction in healthy food store choice due to time lost.
"From Distraction to Dedication: Commitment Against Phone Use in the Classroom" (w/ Billur Aksoy and Scott Carrell) [pdf copy - December 2023]
Abstract: Many people try to limit their phone usage, yet many struggle to do so, highlighting challenges in self-control. We present findings from a field experiment conducted at a large public university in partnership with an app designed as a commitment device to reduce phone use in the classroom. We find that app usage led to improvements in classroom focus, attendance, and overall academic satisfaction. Analysis of time spent outside the classroom suggests a potential substitution effect: students using the app allocated less time to study, particularly on campus. Overall, our evidence suggests improvements in transcript grades associated with app usage.
"Does Automation Reduce Stigma? The Effect of Self-checkout Register Adoption on Purchasing Decisions" (w/ Rebecca Cardinali, Rebecca Taylor, & Sofia Villas-Boas) [pdf copy - March 2024]
Abstract: By removing human cashiers, self-checkout registers may alter feelings of embarrassment experienced by customers. Using high-frequency scanner data from supermarkets in the Washington D.C. area with staggered adoption of self-checkout, we conduct event study analyses on consumer purchases. We find large but noisy effects of self-checkout adoption on sales of some stigmatized items. Moreover, we show stigmatized items are much more likely to be purchased at self-checkout than at cashier registers, especially condoms and pregnancy tests. We estimate customers are willing to pay 8.6 cents in additional time cost for the privacy of purchasing condoms and pregnancy tests at self-checkout.
"The Robustness Reproducibility of the American Economic Review" (w/ Abel Brodeur, Douglas Campbell, Anna Dreber, Magnus Johannesson, Joseph Kopecky, & Nikita Tsoy) [pdf copy - April 2024]
Abstract: We estimate the robustness reproducibility of key results from 17 non-experimental AER papers published in 2013 (8 papers) and 2022/23 (9 papers). We find that many of the results are not robust, with no improvement over time. The fraction of significant robustness tests (p<0.05) varies between 17% and 88% across the papers with a mean of 46%. The mean relative t/z-value of the robustness tests varies between 35% and 87% with a mean of 63%, suggesting selective reporting of analytical specifications that exaggerate statistical significance. A sample of economists (n=359) overestimates robustness reproducibility, but predictions are correlated with observed reproducibility.
"Mass Reproducibility and Replicability: A New Hope" (w/ Abel Brodeur, Derek Mikola, Nikolai Cook, et al.) [pdf copy - April 2024]
Abstract: This study pushes our understanding of research reliability by reproducing and replicating claims from 110 papers in leading economic and political science journals. The analysis involves computational reproducibility checks and robustness assessments. It reveals several patterns. First, we uncover a high rate of fully computationally reproducible results (over 85%). Second, excluding minor issues like missing packages or broken pathways, we uncover coding errors for about 25% of studies, with some studies containing multiple errors. Third, we test the robustness of the results to 5,511 re-analyses. We find a robustness reproducibility of about 70%. Robustness reproducibility rates are relatively higher for re-analyses that introduce new data and lower for re-analyses that change the sample or the definition of the dependent variable. Fourth, 52% of re-analysis effect size estimates are smaller than the original published estimates and the average statistical significance of a re-analysis is 77% of the original. Lastly, we rely on six teams of researchers working independently to answer eight additional research questions on the determinants of robustness reproducibility. Most teams find a negative relationship between replicators' experience and reproducibility, while finding no relationship between reproducibility and the provision of intermediate or even raw data combined with the necessary cleaning codes.
"Unveiling the Unseen Illness: Public Health Warnings and Heat Strokes" (w/ Tim Ruberg) [Extended abstract available upon request]
"Major Disappointment: A Large-scale Experiment on (Non-) Pecuniary Information and Major Choice" (w/ Scott Carrell and Derek Rury) [collecting additional data]
Abstract: Studies suggest providing information to undergraduate students can influence their preference of major. To test the scalability of information treatments on actual major decisions, we conducted several large-scale field experiments across over 13,000 undergraduate students. Three treatment arms separately provided pecuniary, major satisfaction, and job-relatedness information. Despite nearly half of freshmen switching their major at some point during their undergraduate tenure, we find that our information treatments had no impact on major choice. These results hold for various subsamples, outcomes, and specifications. Our results suggest caution on the promise of information provision influencing major choice.
Research in Progress:
"Survival of the Scandalous? Retractions, Failed Replications, and Salaries" (w/ Abel Brodeur)
"Minimum Wage and Higher Education" (w/ Scott Carrell & Alice Li)
"#Tenure? Media, Academia, and Career Outcomes" (w/ Marieke Kleemans, Nick Halliwell & Scott Carrell)
"File Cabinet" Working Papers:
"Peer Review Exhibits the Gambler's Fallacy" (with Scott Carrell and David Figlio) [pdf copy - April 2020]
"College Better: Parimutuel Betting Markets as a Commitment Device and Monetary Incentive" [working paper not updated to include experimental results from the University of Hawaii] [Recipient of the NSF Doctoral Dissertation Research Improvement Grant (#1559150), the Russell Sage Foundation Small Grants in Behavioral Economics, the J-PAL NA Full Research Project Grant, and the 2015 and 2016 UC Davis ISS Dissertation Improvement Grants]